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KUALA LUMPUR (March 18): Affin Hwang Capital Research said Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM) is the biggest loser in the gaming sector, given the government’s recent imposition of the movement restriction order, lowering its target price on the counter.
In a note today, Affin Hwang analyst Ng Chi Hoong wrote that the group’s facilities in Genting Highlands will not be operational for at least 14 days, adding that the group has also halted operations in New York, US for two weeks.
“We are lowering our earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2020 by 8.4% to factor in the shutdown for its Malaysia and US operations. We have also lowered our sum-of-parts-based 12-month target price to RM1.92 from RM2.10 and maintain our ‘sell’ call,” Ng said.
As at 12.30pm, GENM rose two sen or 0.95% to RM2.12, giving it a market capitalisation of RM12.59 billion. Year-to-date, the counter has declined 36%.
The analyst estimated that the loss of revenue for GENM would amount to RM250 million for the 14 days it remains non-operational, adding that the new outdoor theme park could see further delays from its initial plans to open in the third quarter of the year, given that construction works have been put on hold.
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There could be further downside to GENM’s earnings, in the event that the Malaysian government introduces social distancing in the casino, such as in Macau, which would limit the overall capacity of a casino especially in the mass and premium mass gaming areas.
Some of these measures imposed include that gamblers must remain seated, ensuring that at least one seat is left vacated between gamblers and that only three to four gamblers are allowed to gamble at the same time on a seven-seat gambling table.
“Overall gaming revenue (volume) was already on a decline since early February, as concerns over the spread of Covid-19 in close proximity had started to deter customers from visiting,” said Ng.
Subsequently, Genting Bhd is also negatively impacted by virtue of its 49% stake in GENM, resulting in a lower EPS forecast by 3.5% for 2020, with its target price lowered to RM4.30 from RM4.55.
Genting Bhd was up 1 sen at RM3.24, with a market capitalisation of RM12.51 billion.
However, the analyst upgraded Genting to “buy” from “hold”, on valuation grounds.
Meanwhile, for the number forecast operators (NFOs), the research house sees RM90 million in revenue lost for Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd.
However, it said the impact is relatively insignificant, as the six normal draw days forgone is less than 4% of the 168 available draw days for the year.
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It maintained a “sell” call on the stock with an unchanged target price of RM1.76.
Berjaya Sports Toto last traded down 4 sen or 1.83% to RM2.14, with a market capitalisation of RM2.81 billion.